In case you’ve been living under a rock, for the first time in WFTDA history, Champs is touching down on European soil, and having it right here in Malmö is honestly one of the main reasons Nouvelles de l'Euro Derby came back into being!
But while we are buzzing to have the premier event in the sport in our own back garden, we also have some serious business to attend to. We want to help you make your picks so you can claim all the bragging rights and glory in the official EDN x WFTDA Champs Bracket Challenge.
So, how do our four European qualifiers – Rainy City, Toulouse, Paris, and Crime City – stack up when we put their pathways under the microscope?
Let’s dive into the three states of mind heading into October: THE ultimate all-European dream, a few cheeky differential picks, and finally, the cold hard reality.
Dream Time
Right, chuck the algorithms in the bin and just look at the bracket. The tournament draw in Malmö has handed us a bit of pure magic: our European contenders are split cleanly across opposite sides of the board.
Toulouse and Paris are up top feeding into Semi-Final 1, while Rainy City and Crime City are parked down below feeding into Semi-Final 2. That means zero early-round cannibalism, unlike what awaits the NA West region in Malmö. If our teams play out of their skin, an all-European Gold Medal Game is 100% mathematically possible.
Imagine the scenes. Absolute cinema!
On the left side, Toulouse or Paris clear their Round 2 hurdles, pull off the ultimate quarterfinal upset against VRDL or Arch Rival, and book their ticket to Semi-Final 1. Over on the right side, Rainy City or Crime City navigate Round 2, take down a powerhouse like Wheels of Justice or Denver in the quarters, and survive Semi-Final 2.
Suddenly, Game 23 on Sunday evening is Toulouse taking on Rainy City, or Paris clashing with Crime City, on Swedish track to decide Champs. Algorithms disappear, spreadsheets break, and the Hydra stays in Europe for the first time in history.
📺 Our Dream: An All-European Hydra Final
Toulouse vs. Rainy City (or Paris vs. Crime City) – The game/s that would likely break every spreadsheet in derby. A Sunday night showdown where the highest prize in the sport is contested entirely between European teams on European track. A repeat of the European Championship final. Mathematically supported by the tournament structure, these potential matchups represent the ultimate dream for every Euro fan and bracket builder across the continent.
Living in Hope
Ok, ok, we’ll come back down to earth. If we pull back from our euro dreams and look for a statistical edge, Flat Track Stats (FTS) is where the algorithms get incredibly fun for bracket differentials.
What we love about the FTS dataset is how it treats European momentum. Crime City is heavily backed to advance through Round 1, while Paris is projected to secure a decisive Sunday consolation victory against Black Derby Collective with an 89% to 90% win probability. Meanwhile, Rainy City commands an overwhelming 95% win probability in their Round 2 opener against BDC.
When you run the full FTS Global simulation, the bracket breaks wide open: Toulouse’s run takes them past Calgary in consolation play (67%), ultimately setting up an all-European 5th place showdown where Toulouse edges out Rainy City (60%).
If you want a bracket that breaks the mould, FTS provides all the statistical justification you need to live in hope.
📺 Must-Watch Matchup: Toulouse vs. Gotham
THE single biggest statistical anomaly of the entire draw. While FTS Sanctioned backs Gotham at 58%, FTS Global does a complete 180 and hands Toulouse a 69% win probability. That massive split exists because Toulouse deliberately played their blockbuster fixtures against London Brawling and Rainy City as unsanctioned games earlier this year. FTS Global factors in that broader performance data, recognising that the French champions possess the scoring power to topple a legacy giant. If you are looking for a high-reward upset pick in your bracket challenge, this is the one to circle.
Predicting Reality
Like a cold shower, the official WFTDA game predictor, and the numbers, bring us right back to reality. With the Big Three, Rose City Wheels of Justice (3,260.64 GUR), Arch Rival (3,183.53 GUR), and Denver (2,289.73 GUR), sitting high in their statistical towers, the algorithm assumes the traditional transatlantic hierarchy will hold firm across the weekend.
Under WFTDA’s official model, three of our four European teams are forecast for early exits. Crime City is tipped to drop their opening Round 1 game against RipTide before falling to Calgary in Saturday consolation play. Paris runs into Rose City’s Axles of Annihilation (AoA) in Round 2 and is projected to lose out against Black Derby Collective (BDC) on Sunday. Toulouse gets the same treatment, predicted to lose their Round 2 opener to Gotham and their Sunday consolation to RipTide.
Rainy City is the lone European squad the WFTDA algorithm backs for a deep run. While their championship hopes hit a quarterfinal wall against Wheels of Justice, the predictor expects them to clean up the consolation bracket with wins over Santa Cruz and Gotham to lock down a fantastic 5th place finish. It’s a conservative outlook across the board, mostly because the official maths relies heavily on sanctioned inter-regional play, leaving European teams with predominantly domestic or unsanctioned schedules looking artificially quiet on paper.
📺 Must-Watch Matchup: Crime City vs. RipTide
For us European supporters, this is where it all begins, for real. It’s also the ultimate clash of predictive models: while the WFTDA predictor tips RipTide to edge it, Flat Track Stats completely disagrees, giving Crime City a massive 77% to 79% probability to advance. With a home-country crowd behind them in Malmö, Crime City have the chance to blow up the official algorithm in the very first round and set the tone for the entire weekend.
Lock in Your Picks & Grab Your Watch Pass
Whether you are playing it safe with the predictors or backing your team for a historic run, make sure you lock in your selections on the official EDN x WFTDA Champs Bracket Challenge before the first whistle blows in Malmö!
And if you can’t be in the Baltiska Hallen to experience the roar of the crowd in person, make sure you grab your WFTDA watch pass right away. This year is particularly special: for the first time ever, the WFTDA is broadcasting Champs in multiple languages! Alongside the English feed, you can follow all the action with dedicated commentary in French, Swedish, and Spanish. It is a massive milestone for international derby, allowing fans across Europe to cheer on Toulouse, Paris, Crime City, and 2×4 in their own languages.
Head over to WFTDA now to secure your pass, finalise your bracket selections, and get ready for a thrilling postseason.
































